Though the 14th amendment of the US constitution should ban all insurrectionists from running for elected office, it seems unlikely to be applied to 21st-century candidates the way it was to former Confederates. She in turn is suing him and two of his siblings, alleging that they defrauded her out of much of her inheritance (which they deny). Trump has initiated lawsuits of his own, but a great many have been dismissed, although he is still suing his niece, Mary Trump, for disclosing tax information about him. In February the courts ruled that these civil suits can go forward, and Trump lacks the immunity that would protect him from them. There are also suits holding Trump responsible for the January 6 insurrection both from members of Congress, and two policemen injured in the mayhem. That could be a felony, though how much appetite the Biden administration has for jailing a former president remains to be seen.Īmong the large array of civil charges Trump faces are E Jean Carroll’s allegations of defamation over his insult-laden denial that he raped her (he has responded that he was simply responding in the line of “official duties”) and former consigliere Michael Cohen’s case that his return to prison was triggered by Trump after Cohen released a revealing memoir. Last month news broke that Trump had left the White House with classified documents, which he claimed he had a right to take to his home. He is also facing so many lawsuits that both CNN and NBC published indexes of the cases. ![]() ![]() Trump’s domestic status seems to be shifting rapidly. Just last week, the January 6 committee laid out a series of potential charges against the ex-president, including conspiracy to defraud the American people and obstructing an official proceeding of Congress. His 2019 withholding of military aid to Ukraine to try to pressure Ukrainian president Zelenskiy into supporting his lies is also being re-examined under the harsh light of this war.Īdditionally, Trump is facing many criminal charges, from allegations of financial dirty dealing by the Trump Organization in New York ( Trump has called the various probes into the business “politically motivated”), to an investigation into whether Trump and his allies subverted election results in Georgia, where Trump claims election fraud took place. Suddenly a lot of Republicans are trying to scurry away from their own pro-Putin record, which may mean distancing themselves from Trump as well. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has woken up people around the world (or at least those who were dozing) to Vladimir Putin’s malevolence and reminded Americans of how eagerly Trump allied himself with the Russian dictator, personally and politically. Former attorney general Bill Barr is now speaking up – to promote his book – about how Trump was clearly advised that his claims of election theft had no basis and that his strategies to overturn the results were illegal. Even in the past couple of weeks his standing has shifted significantly. Currently, he is creating conflict within the Republican party with his insistence on controlling it for his own agenda and punishing dissenters.Īnother assumption we make when we assess Trump’s prospects is that he won’t be locked up in 2024, or that his reputation, such as it is, won’t be severely damaged even in the eyes of some who voted for him before. The Republicans are clearly gearing up to try to steal an election again, but their chances of winning one with Trump as candidate seem slim. It’s also worth remembering that he lost the popular vote by millions in 2016 and by more millions in 2020 he never had a mandate. Look to external issues too, for whatever the condition of his own health, his financial health is under attack, with businesses losing money and some banks refusing to lend to him after the storming of the Capitol.
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